First, a basic history review:

Seventy years ago today, on May 10, 1940, the German armed forces launched the deep-penetration attack through southern Belgium to the English Channel that split the French and British armies in two – a form of warfare known to the world as Blitzkrieg or “lightning war.” Three weeks later, the campaign ended with the German subjugation of France, Belgium and the Netherlands and Britain’s ignominious withdrawal from the European continent.

To contemporary Western military observers accustomed to the grinding attrition battles of World War I, Germany’s incredibly successful Blitzkrieg seemed magical. But there was no magic. For any great victory to occur, the winning side must get most things right while the losing side gets most things wrong.

How did this happen?

The Germans got most things right. They integrated new technology into new organizations – radio communications, tanks, armored infantry and air power – under vastly superior battlefield commanders, commanders who led Germany’s superbly educated, physically fit and trained soldiers from the front, not the rear. But it’s what the British and French got wrong that should command America’s attention.

First the Brits:

In the 1920s, Britain’s top generals focused the British army on organizing, training and equipping its troops to police the declining British Empire. British military leaders decided the only enemy Britain would fight for at least 10 years would be a colonial enemy, a hostile tribesman or insurgent. The long-term results of this thinking were nearly fatal to Britain.

As far as the frogs were concerned:

In France, where defense spending rose to account for one-third of all government expenditures by 1939, there was no shortage of modern equipment, only a shortage of competent senior leadership in the general-officer ranks. “Methodical battle,” a concept of war-fighting emphasizing set-piece battles and the application of preplanned firepower over maneuver, was enshrined as the French national vision of future war. Its strategic effect was devastating.

(France fell is six weeks.)
Now for the really scary bit; what are WE doing lately?

Today, stars will only fall on American Army and Marine officers who religiously embrace counterinsurgency inside the Islamic world as the future. The notion that the generals have “discovered” a military solution to Islam’s societal misery in the form of counterinsurgency is untrue, but no one in the White House, the Senate or the House, let alone the media, is willing to challenge it.

Sad but true!

But armies are what they do, and, for the moment, the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are light constabulary forces designed to police Muslim Arabs and Afghans with AK-47 rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and mines. This conversion to light forces designed to operate from fixed bases while depending heavily on timely and accurate air strikes for effectiveness and survival has left American ground forces in a weakened, vulnerable state.

For the United States, the critical military lesson of May 10, 1940, means avoiding Britain’s mistake of optimizing its forces to fight weak insurgents, especially when Muslim rebellions against unwanted American military occupations are easily avoided. It also means understanding that future conflicts will involve wars among nations and alliances of nations waged by powerful armed forces for regional power and influence; fights for energy, water, food, mineral resources and the wealth they create. Otherwise, the generals’ current obsession with counterinsurgency will leave the American armed forces as unprepared for a real war in 10 years as the British and French forces were for their confrontation with Germany in 1940.

Of course, it is claimed that now there is no likelihood of anyone being able to fight a “real war” against us, right?

(Move along folks, nothing to see here.  Ignore that 800 lb. gorilla that lives just to the north of the South China Sea; or what his buddy in the USSR Russian Federation is up to with continuing to develop shiny new high-performance aircraft, subs, nuclear weapons, missiles, and tanks.  No concerns at all, right?)

Chinese accused of vast trade in organs
Harvests come from religious dissidents

China’s hidden policy of executing prisoners of the forbidden quasi-Buddhist group Falun Gong and harvesting their organs for worldwide sale has been expanded to include Tibetans, “house church” Christians and Muslim Uighurs, human rights activists said Monday.

In a news conference on Capitol Hill, several speakers, including attorney David Matas of B’nai Brith Canada and Ethan Gutmann of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said their investigations have unearthed a grisly trade in which an estimated 9,000 members of Falun Gong have been executed for their corneas, lungs, livers, kidneys and skins.

They likened the practice to the Nazi treatment of Jewish prisoners in World War II concentration camps, which included using them for sadistic medical experiments and taking the gold fillings from the teeth of corpses.

The newest wrinkle, they said, is that organs from other religious prisoners — specifically dissidents from China’s Christian, Muslim and Tibetan Buddhist communities — are also being harvested to satisfy an insatiable global demand.

“These groups are useless to the state,” Mr. Gutmann said. “They are toxic, so you can’t release them. But they’re worth a great deal of money in terms of their organs.”

Organs from just one person can fetch a total of $100,000 on the worldwide market, he added.

Remember the investigations on corporations who were in bed with the Nazis?

So what about the same or worse with the ChiComs…or is a business one that’s deemed “too big to fail”?

The commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific said Thursday that the buildup of Chinese armed forces is continuing “unabated” and Beijing’s goal appears to be power projection beyond Asia.

“China’s rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances and holds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region,” said Adm. Robert F. Willard, the Pacific Command leader. “Of particular concern is that elements of China’s military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region.”

The comments in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee are likely to fuel an ongoing debate inside the U.S. government among military, policy and intelligence officials over whether China’s military buildup is limited to a future conflict with Taiwan or whether China harbors global military ambitions.

Uh…just a hint: the ChiComs don’t require aircraft carriers and long-range anti-ship missiles to deal with Taiwan if they decide to pull that trigger.

Is China’s Politburo spoiling for a showdown with America?

The long-simmering clash between the world’s two great powers is coming to a head, with dangerous implications for the international system.

China has succumbed to hubris. It has mistaken the soft diplomacy of Barack Obama for weakness, mistaken the US credit crisis for decline, and mistaken its own mercantilist bubble for ascendancy. There are echoes of Anglo-German spats before the First World War, when Wilhelmine Berlin so badly misjudged the strategic balance of power and over-played its hand.

There are a lot more gory details in the piece…it’s not cheerful reading.

A part of the overall problem is this:

China opposes US and EU demands for yuan revaluation

Premier Wen Jiabao made it clear during a press conference marking the end of the country’s parliamentary meetings that he did not think the yuan was undervalued and blamed the US for the deterioration in relations between the two superpowers.

He made a renewed call for the US to take concrete action to reassure investors about the security of the dollar, declaring he was still worried about China’s considerable holdings of US Treasury securities, currently standing at just under $900bn (£596bn).

The premier’s comments offered little comfort for US President Barack Obama as he considers growing demands from US businesses and unions to impose trade sanctions against cheap Chinese products. He has urged China to adopt a more “market related exchange rate” and is considering whether to go a stage further and name China as a “currency manipulator.”

An increase in tension has been fuelled by US arms sales to Taiwan and the visit of the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader, to Washington along with the attacks on Google which has threatened to withdraw from China unless it can be assured it can run its search engine without interference.

There had been hopes that Premier Wen’s press conference, the Chinese leadership’s traditional platform for sending coded signals to the rest of the world about policy shifts, would provide some pointers to change but economists saw no sign of any movement on the crucial currency question.

So far the deterioration in relations has been reflected by an increase in the level of rhetoric but economists fear President Obama may be forced into tougher action.

Stay tuned.

China questions costs of U.S. healthcare reform

Guess what? It turns out the Chinese are kind of curious about how President Barack Obama’s healthcare reform plans would impact America’s huge fiscal deficit. Government officials are using his Asian trip as an opportunity to ask the White House questions. Detailed questions.

Boilerplate assurances that America won’t default on its debt or inflate the shortfall away are apparently not cutting it. Nor should they, when one owns nearly $2 trillion in assets denominated in the currency of a country about to double its national debt over the next decade.

Nothing happening in Washington today should give Beijing any comfort or confidence about what may happen tomorrow. Healthcare reform was originally promoted as a way to “bend the curve” on escalating entitlement costs, the major part of which is financing Medicare and Medicaid. That is looking more and more like an overpromised deliverable.

Looks like even the ChiComs get the picture…now, if we can only get SanFranNan Pelosi and Dusty Harry Reid to exercise some fiscal rationality….

Nearly two decades after the collapse of the Communist Party, Russia’s rulers have hit upon a model for future success: the Communist Party.

Or at least, the one that reigns next door.

Like an envious underachiever, Vladimir V. Putin’s party, United Russia, is increasingly examining how it can emulate the Chinese Communist Party, especially its skill in shepherding China through the financial crisis relatively unbowed.

United Russia’s leaders even convened a special meeting this month with senior Chinese Communist Party officials to hear firsthand how they wield power.

In the words of Rod Stewart:  “Every picture tells a story, don’t it?”

A police state is a police state – whether you call it the “Communist Party of (insert country here)”, “United Russia”, or the “National Socialist German Workers Party”, it’s just different sides of the same coin.

President Obama recently shifted authority for approving sales to China of missile and space technology from the White House to the Commerce Department — a move critics say will loosen export controls and potentially benefit Chinese missile development.

The president issued a little-noticed “presidential determination” Sept. 29 that delegated authority for determining whether missile and space exports should be approved for China to Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.

Even Bill Clinton had enough shame to do stuff like this under the radar. As fas as B.O. is concerned, why bother.
Of course, the message to the country is “Nothing to see here. Move along folks. Go back home and watch NBC some more.”

Commerce officials say the shift will not cause controls to be loosened in regards to the export of missile and space technology.

DUH…by delegating the authority for approval DOWN the chain of command…the controls have ALREADY been loosened!

Besides…there is no reason to change the regulatory setup…unless there is already the intention to use the changed system to sell our technology to the ChiComs.

Eugene Cottilli, a spokesman for Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security, said under new policy the U.S. government will rigorously monitor all sensitive exports to China.

Right…they will be monitored. Logically, this means that they will be occurring! Otherwise, there would be nothing to monitor! (Dang! That pesky logic…)

The presidential notice alters a key provision of the 1999 Defense Authorization Act that required that the president notify Congress whether a transfer of missile and space technology to China would harm the U.S. space-launch industry or help China’s missile programs.

How can a “presidential notice” repeal a law? Did I miss something here?

The law was passed after a late-1990s scandal involving the U.S. companies Space Systems/Loral and Hughes Electronics Corp. Both companies improperly shared technology with China and were fined $20 million and $32 million, respectively, by the State Department after a U.S. government investigation concluded that their know-how was used to improve China’s long-range nuclear missiles.

This was the afore-mentioned Clintonista “problem” with missile tech security.

Section 1512 of the 1999 law requires the president to certify to Congress in advance of any missile equipment or technology exports to China that the export will not harm the U.S. space-launch industry and that “missile equipment or technology, including any indirect technical benefit that could be derived from such export, will not measurably improve the missile or space launch capabilities of the People’s Republic of China.”

Of course, if B.O. is ignoring Congress on this, Congress will surely respond vigorously, right?

Oh…yeah…THIS Congress…never mind.

White House angry at General Stanley McChrystal speech on Afghanistan

At the time that General McChrystal was appointed, B.O. pledged to take care of the needs of the force as communicated by the commanding general…that WOULD be McCrystal. Ooops! When he says something that B.O. doesn’t want to hear, it’s a different story. Support for the war apparently only goes so far now that the election is over.

According to sources close to the administration, Gen McChrystal shocked and angered presidential advisers with the bluntness of a speech given in London last week.

Truth is a bitch!

The next day he was summoned to an awkward 25-minute face-to-face meeting on board Air Force One on the tarmac in Copenhagen, where the president had arrived to tout Chicago’s unsuccessful Olympic bid. In an apparent rebuke to the commander, Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, said: “It is imperative that all of us taking part in these deliberations, civilians and military alike, provide our best advice to the president, candidly but privately.”

This ignores the situation that McChrystal’s requests were made weeks ago, with hardly a “Howdy do?”  In reply. B.O. doesn’t seem able to realize that military combat doesn’t operate according to the whims of his attention…or rather, inattention.

Less than perfect decisive action is generally better than no action at all, which has been the White House pattern of late.

If there was an incipient plan to cut out and abandon the effort (without commenting on the merits of THAT), then there MAY be some rationale to the non-response from Washington, but…that’s NOT what they are insisting:

White House: Leaving Afghanistan not an option

The White House said Monday that President Barack Obama is not considering a strategy for Afghanistan that would withdraw U.S. troops from the eroding war there. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that walking away isn’t a viable option to deal with a war that is about to enter its ninth year. “I don’t think we have the option to leave. That’s quite clear,” Gibbs said.

If that’s really the case, not to put a fine point to it, then it’s past time for B.O. to s–t or get off the pot!

In addition, to completely have two opposite trends at the same time, comes SECDEF Gates

Taliban Afghan momentum due to lack of U.S. troops

The Taliban has the momentum in Afghanistan now because of the inability of the United States and its allies to put enough troops into the country, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday.

HUH?

Firstly, Gates essentially is agreeing with McChrystal that we do not have enough troops in-country to successfully do the job: so now both the Commanding General AND the Secretary of Defense apparently don’t buy into B.O.’s pusillanimous inaction.

Secondly, is the United States Secretary of Defense REALLY saying that this is due to the “INABILITY of the United States and its allies to put enough troops into the country” [emphasis added]?  We are UNABLE to carry out a policy that would enable winning the war in Afghanistan?

Anyone else remember B.O. proclaiming that AFGHANISTAN was the “central front” of the war on Islamoterrs, in contrast to Iraq? Apparently that was then (campaign mode) and this is now (Administration mode).

However it plays out, our allies and so-called allies are betting that the United States uner B.O. is a paper tiger, so they are getting together behind our back and planning to slip it to us financially and economically, apparently with no fear of possible effective response:

The demise of the dollar

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

Our reaction thus far is in any practical sense, ineffectual, as we slip towards an expansion of Cold War II.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. “Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable,” he told the Asia and Africa Review. “We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security.”

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil…

God help us…we’ll need it if we don’t start to get our sh… er… stuff together.

China will censor the Internet used by foreign media during the Olympics, an organising committee official confirmed Wednesday, reversing a pledge to offer complete media freedom at the games.

I mean, did anyone REALLY expect otherwise? One supposes that there are libmoonbats that think everything is warm and fuzzy over there, but hey – the ChiComs are doing what the ChiComs do, in spite of what any moonbats think about them.

It’s always worth noting that Google, etc. are implicit and cooperative with the ChiComs in building and maintaining the “Great Firewall of China”, which is why the Chief recommends use of the new search engine Cuil. Besides, they don’t track your search patterns like Google does – a definite plus!

The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is one of the sharpest reporters around, and has been for some time. He describes a very interesting situation.

The great oil shock of 2008 is bad enough for us. It poses a mortal threat to the whole economic strategy of emerging Asia. The manufacturing revolution of China and her satellites has been built on cheap transport over the past decade. At a stroke, the trade model looks obsolete….

Can you say “schadenfreude“?

“The monumental energy price increases will be a ‘game-changer’ for Asia,” said Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley. The region’s trade model is about to be “stress-tested”.

Energy subsidies have disguised the damage. China has held down electricity prices, though global coal costs have tripled since early 2007. Loss-making industries are being propped up. This merely delays trouble. “The true impact of the shock will only be revealed over time, as subsidies are gradually rolled back,” he said. Last week, China raised internal rail freight rates by 17pc.

BP ‘s Statistical Review says China’s use of energy per unit of gross domestic product is three times that of the US, five times Japan’s, and eight times Britain’s. China’s factories “were not built with current energy levels in mind”, said Mr Jen. The outcome will be “non-linear”. My translation: China is at risk of blowing up.

Non-linear…as in jagged, or sharp and sudden, not smooth and gradual.

Any low-tech product shipped in bulk – furniture, say, or shoes – is facing the ever-rising tariff of high freight costs. The Asian outsourcing game is over, says CIBC World Markets. “It’s not just about labour costs any more: distance costs money,” says chief economist Jeff Rubin. Xinhua says that 2,331 shoe factories in Guangdong have shut down this year, half the total.

North Carolina’s furniture industry is coming back from the dead as companies shut plant in China. “We’re getting hit with increases up and down the system. It’s changing the whole equation of where we produce,” said Craftsmaster Furniture.

It’s an ill wind indeed that blows no good!

Evans-Pritchard concludes with a turn of phrase that is well worth some serious contemplation, as it cuts to the real heart of the matter IMHO:

Come what may, globalisation has passed its high-water mark. The pendulum will now swing back from China to America. The mercantilists will have to reinvent themselves.

Interesting times, indeed!